Early Signs, Vol. 2 - Plot

Sitting here watching my beloved SEC lay an egg on New Year's Day. Largely tuning out commercials, when an apparent news report catches my eye.

Reporter: "And this just in, a small commercial plane has just crash landed in an upscale subdivision."

Max Boom, from his upscale(ish) neighborhood, perks up.

Reporter: "Here we have pictures of several victims being wheeled into the ER."

Max Boom, noticing the perfect lighting and the all-white constiuency of the ER, notes to himself "Good one, ER, or Trauma, or whatever one of you cheeseball hospital dramas you are, you got me for all of 5 seconds. Buy your ad man a snowball or something." Returns to picking fingernails.

Deepvoiced network announcer: "So tune in to next week's Desperate Housewives to find out who is injured, who shows up to console the victims..." blah, blah, blah.

Look, it's a free country. People can and do tune into shows that I can't for the life of me figure out how an amoeba would find interesting. That's all fine.

The question is this-- If you are one of the gay men or bon bon eating true "desparate housewives" looking to indulge in a little fantasy "projection" TV experiences, what do the scriptwriters and the programmers think of you?

ABC Boardroomm CEO: "Wait, let me get this straight. You have a show about a bunch of adulterous women living in a small neighborhood. One of likely millions of similar neighborhoods across the country. And you're suggesting that anyone with even an elementary education will accept that a small commuter plane, the kind which maybe crashes into an occupied area once every couple of years, will actually crash into one of your 6 main characters' houses?"

Desparate Housewives Scriptwriter: "Yes sir, I do. With all do respect, you don't know our target audience like we do."

You, yeah, you acting in the next 5 minutes in order to get that 2nd sham-wow absolutely free-- they're lookin' at you.

North Dakota Banking

I have no idea why this doesn't get more press. North Dakota has its own bank. OK, big deal. Except that it is a big deal. It is the only state that has kept banking within its borders, and not gone national (note, Puerto Rico is not a state). It has kept the Federal Reserve's hands out of its banking sector. Bank accounts held with the Bank of North Dakota are not FDIC insured, and instead are insured by the state of North Dakota. All state and local government agencies are required to keep their reserves in the Bank of North Dakota.

What does this mean? It means that the state's monetary policies are not beholden to an entity that for all intents and purposes is based on Wall Street for the enrichment of Wall Street. OK, again, this is a big deal.

How does that manifest itself? For one, it's a lot more dialed in on its constituents' risk profiles. Because it's operations are generally confined to within state borders, you don't see it's loans being securitized and sold to pensions, sovereign wealth funds, etc.

In a nutshell, it's a safer system because the closer you can pair the banker with the borrower, the more accountability you have in the system. What's the result?

Admittedly it isn't far and away #1, and it seems those states in geographic proximity also fair generally well, but for sure its unemployment reflects reasonably prudant fiscal discipline. Best graphic I can find-- follow North Dakota vs. everyone else. Furthermore, I'm willing to bet that it continues to overachieve even against its neighbors over the next 12 months, as unemployment will almost certainly continue to climb nationally.

Hurricane!

Bonnie's Best: "...oom... ... in Boom... this is Bonnie's Best, come in General Boom..."
Max Boom: "General Boom here, go ahead."
Bonnie's Best: "We have a man down. Repeat, we have a man down."
Max Boom: "Copy. What's the situation?"
Bonnie's Best: "It was Early Bird. He was running point against Ida. He was under heavy fire from the west all day and just took a direct hit."





Max Boom: "Roger that, I'm on my way."
Bonnie's Best: "Negative, General. It's too dangerous. It's pouring. The wind. Save yourself!"
Max Boom: "We don't leave a man behind! Roma, thoughts?"
Roma: "It's too dangerous!"
Max Boom: "Enough! WE DON'T LEAVE A MAN BEHIND! Options?"
Roma: "We might be able to fashion a splint with the paint stirrer?"
Bonnie's Best: "We can possibly nail the splint to the base, and use tourniquets at the top. You'll be under heavy fire the whole time.
Max Boom: "OK, we have no choice. I'll give it a shot."
Better Boy: "General, it's too dangerous. Save yourself!"
Max Boom: "I have to try, damn it!"
Roma: "We're all pulling for you!"







Bonnie's Best: "Will...he...make it? Will the stake hold"
Roma: "Is Early Bird too badly injured? Will he see it through the night?"
Max Boom: "I don't know. I just don't know."

Halloween in the 'Burbs

"You doin' drumsticks this year?" Chip asked.
"You got fresh batteries for the witch's microphone?" I replied.

He smiled. As if either of us had a choice.

Living in a planned community has its pros and cons. As a man who needs his space, I think the cons probably outweigh the pros. That being written, Halloween is one of those few times of year where it's nice to be part of a tight knit neighborhood.

I'm a guy who likes to have a shtick. As a relative newcomer in the neighborhood with only 4 years of tenure, most of the good Halloween roles had already been taken upon my arrival. Hayrides are handled by Earl. There's Jello Shot George, keeping parents focused on the real meaning of Halloween. I could build a haunted house in my garage, but I'd have to compete against Syracuse Dan and his 8 year track record (and who has been planning this year's spookfest since November 1 of last year.)

It took a couple of years, but I now have an official place on the neighborhood team. I'm the drumstick guy.

Ladies, keep the undergarments on. I'm happily married.

At 6:00 p.m. 45 chicken drumsticks hit the grill. Not wingettes, mind you. Full blown drumsticks. Seasonings and low heat, they cook for 45 minutes until perfectly browned and juicy. A very light coating of barbecue sauce, another 5 minutes of cooking and they're ready for their spot on the driveway table next to the paper towels, wipes and the candy bowl.

The keys are outstanding seasoning and not boiling in advance, but fully cooking on the grill. That and a bunch of hungry, mostly drunk parents.

I gave away 41 drumsticks last night, all to people I know from the neighborhood. Ms. Fire and I each had 2. Outside tourists were welcome to candy, but I think most left disappointed with a watering mouth.

The morning after, when you're washing off the sin and the face paint you missed from the night before, looking in the mirror trying to piece together how you managed to shephard your kids around the neighborhood in one piece while drinking heavily for 4 straight hours, you always remember 3 or 4 houses that stuck out. My house is on that list.

Early Signs, Vol. 1 - Turn Signals

Debated whether to title this "Middle Signs" or "Late Signs", but as ab and Ghost would opine I'm forever the optimist. So instead of saying we peaked 20 years ago as a society, I'm going to be rosy and say we're peaking now.

This won't be an indictment against the entire race, only the America-centric culture into which our great grandparents were probably the first generation born, and we the last.

Turn signals on a car are interesting. They're mostly a courtesy. Wrecks aren't overturned based on evidence of "He had his signal on." You might get a ticket making an unsignaled right at a Dunkin' Donuts, but that's about it.

A blinker. "I'm going this way, hope that info helps." "Hey, we're all out here together, trying to navigate through more obstacles at higher speeds on tighter time demands-- let me do my part." "I care about you."

I started driving over half my life ago. I see fewer turn signals used. The care is gone. Our steel horses are no longer for utility. They are armor in a fight club.

Blinkers are an early sign of societal discord. I'll hit more.

My Truck

So my truck hit 100,000 miles right as I was leaving my office garage. I can say with certainty that I’ve driven over 99,000 of those miles. Maybe even 99,500. Nah, digging through the bar fly banter memory banks, and of Ms. Fire’s endless patience as a chaperone after a long night collecting research, it’s probably closer to 99,000.

I love this truck, so please indulge my blathering.

This is the first vehicle I ever bought myself. By my best estimations, the dealer probably made 50% on the transaction. They’re probably still telling stories about me. Sprayed bed liner - you bet. Undercoating protection – a must have. Gloss coat protection – how could I live without it? My only demand was that they acknowledge the almighty providence of my trade-in, a 1992 4-Runner affectionately called TurboDog. So I smoothly negotiated its trade in value from $2,000 to $2,500, got myself inked up for 5 years at 5.9% financing and we were off to the races.

The fun we’ve had. Oh, I was a little mad at the big guy at first for not speaking up as I was getting bent over the barrel at the dealership, but nothing a few roars of his 5.4 liter Triton V.8 wouldn’t fix. And it’s no understatement to note that those electronic seat warmers saved my ass on a few cold DC mornings. They say a machine can’t think, but I know, absolutely KNOW, that my truck knew the way home from Uno’s in Bethesda to my Casa de Mierda in Herndon.

I don’t pamper him as much as he deserves. He hasn’t been washed in months, but I’m pretty sure he’s OK with that. Oil changes are fewer and further between than recommended. I could feel his suspicion when I installed ‘Lil Bang’s carseat in the middle back seat —ferrying children being women’s work and all. But I think he secretly gets a kick when he activates the automatic air and ‘Lil Bang laughs.

He’s picked up a few scars along the way. A tree branch’s scratch on the side, gone unattended, is starting to show a little sign of rust. Some minor scratches on the roof, received from an overhead parking garage girder the one time I let Ms. Fire drive him to work, are still there. The 2 busted locks earned defending himself from would-be thieves have not been replaced. I leave them there as a reminder to the next set of thieves to not even waste their time trying to breach the fort.

I’ve worn a hole in the floormat, whose color has been discontinued. And he’s been begging me for the past 2 years to replace his trailer hitch, stolen while at a party. He says he feels neutered. I’m hoping Santa leaves him a little something in his stocking this year. Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the BB gun pot shot he sustained driving home one evening. It's hard to count this one, though, as he's been known to show it off to the girls (read "Chevy's") in the parking lot of my local watering hole.

Yup, the ol’ boy is also starting to show his age. The air conditioner just went out. He’d never admit it, but I’m pretty sure the control panel failure was directly linked to too many automatic on/off cycles for ‘Lil Bang’s enjoyment. Easy call to spend the $1,000 to give him his game back. The transmission chatters a little between 3rd and 4th under the right circumstances. Like a snoring spouse, it’s a habitual tic I’ve learned to ignore. It’ll go out one of these days, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. For now, I trust him as he trusts me.

The financial environment has dictated that we’re going to be partners for a while yet to come. I’m fortunate that we’re such friends.

Here’s to 100,000 more, buddy.

Poker Musings, Vol. 6 - Career Fallback Plan

My new ATM...

Fatherhood

Some days are better than others. Whoever designed this store had a day like mine.

Pickle, It's Not Just a Funny Word

Some people have a can do attitude. The Boom clan has a can can attitude. Or something.

For those with victory gardens, spoils are reaped. Mentioned that we have some pickling cucumbers. Time to pickle. Below is a picture of but a small sampling of the many cucumbers the garden has yielded. I decided to take a picture of only a limited number, and frankly of the ones that wouldn't make the photo shoots of less secure gardners.



I assure you-- ASSURE-- that in no way is that the total of all cucumbers grown to date.

The next step was to sterilize jars and prepare the brine.



Skipping ahead, you want to chop all of the cukes into slices if they're of the small sampling like those pictured above, or into spears if they're like the vast majority of the rest of my harvest. You can also prepare the garlic and hot peppers while the brine comes to a boil. Results:



Now comes the fun part. Assembly includes jamming as many cucumbers into the jar as possible. Then you throw the your seed all over it. Get your head out of the gutter!



Repeat as desired...



Hopefully you've sterilized the lids. If so, seal and throw in the boiling bath for 15 minutes or so. My first 3 jars.



Lest you reach cucumber complacency, there are always green beans and asparagus just begging to be pickled.



And if you're feeling very ambitious (a/k/a "boomish"), you can also brine yourself up some custom pepper sauce.





Let sit for 6 weeks, you're good to go.

Bar Fly Banter, Vol. 6 - Training

Presented without comment, except to say "Not mine!"

Max Boom and Gold

We’re currently in deflation, not inflation. House prices, gas prices, car prices, stock prices are all way down. Go to the mall and buy clothes—everything is on sale. These are not inflationary indicators.

The Fed’s printing a ton of money, but it’s not gaining any utility. If the Fed printed $100 trillion and buried it under the White House, it wouldn’t make a lick of difference in the price of anything. That’s what is happening now—the Fed (actually, to be accurate, the Treasury) is printing money like mad but it’s being vaulted and so isn’t leading to the inflation the media is alluded to.

"Hyper-inflation" is also a catchy buzz word among today's talking heads. Not the smart ones, mind you. We also won’t see hyper-inflation for decades if at all. It really only comes about when a nation’s population loses complete faith in its country’s currency. It’s Germany in the 1920’s and Zimbabwe today. It can’t happen here in the short term for one good reason — our military. In the extreme, if Obama is faced with a starving, riotous population demanding leaders’ heads on pikes or invading New Zealand and happily selling wool and mutton to US citizens for US dollars… well, there’s no loss in the faith of a currency if it can buy what you need. At present Uncle Sam has the guns to protect its currency.

But the government does want controlled inflation, which it’s having a tough time getting now. That will change in the future, and if you can time that right you’ll make out like a bandit. In order for the deflation mentioned above to transition to inflation, all of the excess credit has to be sopped out of the system. That’s happening slowly through foreclosures, bankruptcies, inventory dumping, etc. But home values have collectively lost over $10 trillion. That’s $10 trillion that 3 years ago could have been monetized (turned into real cash) and spent by someone, so don’t discount those credit dollars’ effect on the total “money pool” any less than the $1.6 trillion being printed. Both are sort of imaginary dollars to a guy growing and selling corn, but he sells his corn for it anyway. Additionally, the stock market has lost well over $10 trillion, which is a very real amount to subtract from the “money pool.” At present, the Fed can’t print money (and/or sell via Treasuries) as fast as the credit bubble is contracting. Declining prices are a result.

I am a recently converted gold bug and have made some purchases in the last 6 months. My reasoning is that gold is money. Drop me off in just about any country in the world and I can go to their version of a bank and convert it into local currency for some exchange rate. I’m not making a gold-as-a-commodity play to protect against inflation just yet. I’m making a gold-as-money play. Every country in the world is printing money like mad in a race to devalue their currencies and make their exports cheaper. That’s good for gold, which no country can unilaterally devalue and all hoard.

So if you’re investing in gold and watch the price go up in the short term, it doesn’t necessarily mean that inflation is setting in just yet. It could just mean that gold is being more highly valued than a dollar as a place holder for money. But the same doesn’t necessarily hold true for other traditional inflation hedges like land, which still might be contracting in price due to deflation.

Beer, however, is where I'm most levereged tonight.

Victory Garden

Great Depression. Swine Flu. Zombies. One can never be too prepared. Claiming only a tiny speck of real estate as my own, I decided to improvise on the traditional garden. Without further ado, my 4' x 4' elevated survival kit.


Close-Up...


This is obviously a learning experience. Some successes. We have some salad cucumbers...


And some pickling cucumbers...


Beefsteak and Better Boy Tomatoes...


And Cherry Tomatoes...


Carrots are on the way...


It hasn't been all smooth sailing. For some reason I can't keep a pepper alive. Perhaps they're too close together?


And the jury is still out on the zucchinis. They are still flowering but for some reason aren't pollinating.


And as an added bonus, the blackberries in the woods are ripe!



All in all a good time.

A Morning in the Life of Max Boom

6:45am - Wake Up
7:00am - Shower
7:15am - Put Trapped Possum in Back of Truck
7:20am - Manually Polinate Garden Zucchinis with Small Paint Brush
7:30am - Feed Lil Bang
7:45am - Put on Dress Clothes For Work
7:55am - Change Poopy Diaper, Re-Dress Lil Bang into Fresh, Un-soiled Clothes
8:00am - Leave House
8:10am - Release Possum into Woods 3 Miles from House
8:15am - Drop Lil Bang off at Daycare
9:00am - At Work

Sorry

We're not dead. Not that too many people care. But we're not.

To prove it, I'll give you a joke that was just invented.

A worried wife calls her husband.

The end.

OK, it wasn't a joke.

Deflation

I went shopping on Wednesday of last week. December 17th. I have a pretty sweet list from Ms. Fire. I have to get a Christmas present, and another for her birthday the next day. The goal was a nice handbag and some sort of bauble. Our limit was $250 total for both (as my birthday is the day after). In my mind I was allowed to exceed the limit because a) I'm the man, b) I'm wearing her out with talk on how bad the economy is and c) she gave birth to our first kid, 'Lil Bang, in September of this year.

As mentioned, I've given myself permission to break the limit. $350 was my internal put value. Birthday is the bigger gift for her. So I was at $200-250 for birthday gift and $50-100 for Christmas.

On Wednesday, the stores were pretty dead. So I start in Nordstrom's. I find a nice Coach purse that she'd flagged as an essential. $398 was the list price. I ask the sales lady if they have any promotions running. She looks at me incredulously. Finally, she concedes that they have a price match and because Dillard's is offering 25% off Coach bags they will as well. I also have a "Save $50 if you spend over $150 on a Coach bag" gift card from American Express. So in my mind, I'm at $398 - 25% = $298. -$50 = $248. So I'm in the ballpark. Well the lady tells me I can't combine the 2 discounts.

I tell her "Look around, lady. You see many people dropping 2 bills plus on a bag?"

She was insistent. $298 plus tax was the best they could do.

So I say "Look at this list. I have bag choices from 5 different stores and 3 different brands. I'm likely going to be buying one of them. This sale is yours to blow."

Well, she stuck to her guns, not seeming to grasp that this was not the same sales environment as last year.

"Can I leave you my number so that when this weekend comes and goes and your manager is frantic because the store is woefully behind on its sales goals you can give me a call and tell me you can get me into this purse for $200 after tax?"

Huff.

I went to another couple of stores. No one was willing to give much of a deal and I was beginning to lose hope. "Trust your instincts, you cheap bastard," I told myself.

The story was similar for some of the higher end bauble stores (earings, necklaces and the like.) "We're Bailey, Banks and Biddle, we don't have sales," the effiminate salesman whined. Eat it, Peter Pan! I'll be back and you'll be begging me to buy something.

So the weekend came and went. I was out of town getting 'Lil Bang Christened but I knew-- nay, I felt in my very soul that prices were falling back on the home front.

Tuesday, December 23rd. Nordstroms.

Norstrom Sales Lady: "Here to do some last minute shopping, sir?"
MB: "Nope. Tomorrow is last minute. I decided to come today so that I had ample time to find the right bag at the right price."

Fast forward 20 minutes.

NSL: "We've increased our promotion and can honor both discounts and can sell you this Coach bag for $248 plus tax."
MB: "Sorry, $248 was my Wednesday price. Today I'm at $200 after tax."
NSL: "We can't possibly do that."
MB: "Well, maybe Kate Spade will work with me a little."

Another 20 minutes. Kate Spade Store.

MB: "I like that bag. How much is it?"
KSL: "$475 plus tax."
MB: "When I was here last Wednesday you indicated that you don't have sales. Are there any last minute promotions you are running?"
KSL: "We have been authorized to work with customers to try to get them into the bag they like. How much are you looking to spend?"
MB: "$150."
KSL: "Oh, there is no way we can come down that much."
MB: "How about you ring it up and enter every promotion code you have ever seen and let's see what happens."
KSL: "Interesting. We can use this discount and then it lets me use this other discount and then I can give an employee discount on top. After tax it comes out to $159."
MB: [fingers on each hand touch to form a pyramid] "Excellent."

20 minutes later, Tiffany's

MB: "Any last minute discounts you are running."
TSL "We don't have sales."
MB: "Even with this economy?"
TSL: "Look around. The store is packed and has been all week."
MB: "Point, Tiffany's."

So the lesson there is that some people still have money. Those people want the light blue box. I wasn't winning this battle.

Go through a few other nicer jewelry stores. All were willing to move some on their price, but I could never find the perfect piece for a reasonable price. My appraiser skillz were confirmed, though, as the pieces I keyed in on were largely the ones that couldn't be discounted much because they knew they were going to sell quickly.

Until I hit Movado.

They never saw it coming.

MB: "I really like these earrings."
MSL: "They are quite elegant. 18 carat white gold with this multiple diamond inlay."
MB: "How much are they?"
MSL: "They retail for $875."
MB: "Yes, but how much are they?"
MSL: "We've been authorized to work with the customer and attempt to accomodate their budgets. How much did you want to spend?"
MB: "$150."
MSL: "I'm sorry. We really can't make cuts that steep."
MB: "Well, there is that one little display over there that says 80% off and has a couple of ugly pieces in it. Can we go put the earrings in there and I'll pick them again?"
MSL: "Let me talk to the manager."

5 minutes pass

MSL: "We will be running an after Christmas sale. We haven't yet selected the pieces that we will discount, but if you check back after Christmas there's a good chance these could be discounted up to 40%."
MB: "Can we say that it's an after-last-Christmas sale and put them in the 80% off case? I'm one of 2 customers in the store and I'll buy them right now."
MSL: "Let me talk to the manager."

5 more minutes pass

MSL: "We can give you 80% off. The total price will be $175 + tax which comes to $192."
MB: [fingers on each hand touch to form a pyramid] "Excellent."

Felt so good about myself I even bought 'Lil Bang a silver bracelet. Even at 3 months, she deserves a little spoilin' from Daddy.

And the bonus? I weighed Ms. Fire's earrings. They weigh about 1/8 oz total. 18 carat gold is 75% pure. With the spot price of gold at $840 per oz., I just bought $80 worth of gold alone! Plus all the diamonds! Ms. Fire is now part of my investment portfolio. And let me tell you, that's the hottest investment I've ever made.

A New Era

Hope it works out.

Congrats to President Obama

My prediction: More babies will be born on July 28, 2009 than on any date in the history of the world. Congratulations to all!

Still Alive

Our post count follows the Dow. Expect a strong rally in mid 2009.

Bar Fly Banter, Vol. 5 - The Price of Love

Barfly:"Man, wish I had a spare $20K lying around."
Me (with a modicum of background on the situation to be detailed below):"Is that the going rate these days."
Barfly:"That's the cost of a condo in Costa Rica, which is worth a swap."

There is a patron. Let's call him Sweet Awesome feathered Mullet Guy, or Sam G for short. About 6 weeks ago, Sam G shows up with a girl on his arm that was, shall we say, way out of his league. And dressed to impress. Me and other guys. We'll call her Lolita. Sam G is about 40. Lolita looks to be about 25. "Mail Order" was thrown around-- I thought at first in jest then, until conversation above, in perfect seriousness.

The truth is worse.

Sam G has business interests in Costa Rica. During the course of these interests, he met Lolita's father. Impoverished, if banter is to be believed. Sam G had a decent condo (mayhaps a townhouse, couldn't get verified) that would be a significant upgrade to the family. Sam G negotiated a deal.

The mail-order-bride business is, to me, ethically grey. Provided the "bride" is a willing participant. Not my cup of tea, mind you, but with 2 parties entering the relationship with open eyes, I suspend judgment as I can see a benefit to both parties [that some countries are so inhospitable to necessitate a bride to follow that path is a rant for another day].

Banter once again remaining inviolate, Lolita was seen crying in a nearby bar and consoled by one of the barflyettes who happened to be there at the same time. She's no happy camper.

So what to do about a situation that, on the surface, appears to be a legal adult acting as an unenthusiastic fluff girl for the betterment of her family?

Makes my problems seem small.

I Want to Believe

Life opresses the imagination... and too much love of the known, and not enough want of the fantasy, neuters the dreamer.

You are overwhelmed with stimuli that mean nothing. But you have to obey them or risk poverty. Try to imagine. Try to wrap your mind around "better". There's a point of lucidity that is scary. Get there, and people will materialize to beckon you away. It's real. And Real. And terrifying.

Something's wrong. Are you aware? Try to dream up something that doesn't exist that will make Earth, the planet, competetive. Worth mentioning. Something that's not been imagined yet and articulated. Take a breath and try....

You can't think of it, although some part of you says it's on the edge of your thoughts but you don't know why.

There's a governer on our imagination. It's pissing me off. I'm trying to figure out the human wrench to disable it.

It can't hold everyone back.

The real world numbs your ingenuity. Be on the lookout. Anything that is a stimuli distracting from imagination is sapping your life.

Take care.

Poker Musings, Vol. 4 - BLUFFING

Poker players are often pegged as "lying degenerates". This post isn't intended to do anything to contradict the latter half of the stereotype. Or the former.

In my opinion, the objective of poker is to take other people's money by outthinking them. And enjoy yourself in the process. In a game 'til infinity, everybody will have the same run of cards. In hold 'em, everyone will get dealt pocket aces at the same frequency, and everyone will get dealt J4 at the same frequency.

The key is to win more and lose less than your opponents when you are in a pot.

And that requires deception.

But here's the key. Your opponent is expecting you to lie. And they're going to be lying right back to you. The key to winning is to lie more convincingly and be able to smell the BS more effectively.

There are bluffs. There are Bluffs. And there are BLUFFS.

A bluff is something you might do once every couple of rounds. It's like ducking out early for a beer with a co-worker and failing to mention it to the wife. It's a white lie. Keeps the guy happy, no one's much worse for wear. It's raising AQ preflop from early position, getting a call from the button and then firing a continuation bet on a K94 flop. Your opponent folds. It's technically a bluff, although you might have been talking business over the beer so it can be defended as a career enhancing move.

There are Bluffs. These require a little more craftiness. They're the "I'm taking one of my precious vacation days next Wednesday to go catch a ballgame with the guys and I don't want to tell the wife because she wants me to save all the vacation days for when the baby comes." You have to somewhat set the stage for this one. Make sure your buddies don't tell their significant others. Make sure to sock away the cash so you don't have to use the credit cards. Maybe you've shown a bluff or 2 in the past... "OK, gotta come clean on this one 'cause the guilt is going to eat at me. Spaced Ghost, ab and I went out for a beer after work. It won't happen again."

You raise preflop with 88. You get one caller who has half the number of chips you have. The flop comes KQJ with 2 clubs. You're first to act and move all-in.

The Bluff can blow up in your face on occasion, but you can generally survive with your marriage intact (although if caught it's going to be very tough to bluff or Bluff again for a long while.)

And then there are the BLUFFS. The scary, white knuckle, Vegas trip with your 3 buddies for a weekend of gambling and strip clubs that you not only didn't mention to the Ms. but she can never, ever find out about. I can't emphasize enough the amount of preparation that goes into setting up the BLUFF. You have to have alibis. On top of alibis. On top of misdirections. Mixed in with red herrings. Running a BLUFF requires weeks to set up and still a little luck to pull off. And if you're caught, it means the end of your life.

In poker, pulling off a BLUFF is excruciatingly difficult. It requires perfect timing and often a bad read from your wife opponent. Here is probably one of the more memorable mainstream BLUFFS.

I am primarily a low-limit sit-n-go donkey grinder. Some of the most profitable opponents are the ones who try to BLUFF without setting the proper groundwork. Here's one I found enjoyable, along with some observations on how I knew he wasn't in Omaha at a sales convention and instead was taking jello shooters from Porsha's naval in the Rhino Club.

> PokerStars Game #19030xxxxx: Tournament #973xxxxx

9-max Seat #7 is the button
> Seat 6: MAXBOOM (7370 in chips) (overwhelming chip leader, of course)
> Seat 7: Mr. Irrelavent (3290 in chips)
> Seat 8: I'mLosingHalfofEverything (2840 in chips)

> MAXBOOM: posts the ante 25
> Mr. Irrelavent: posts the ante 25
> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: posts the ante 25
> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: posts small blind 100
> MAXBOOM: posts big blind 200

Pot is 375
> *** HOLE CARDS ***
> Dealt to MAXBOOM [3c Ac]
> Mr. Irrelavent: folds
> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: calls 100 (try to build a range here. Not a terrible player. Short stack. I think the range of hands he could have is way too broad to list.

Business trip, eh. All right then. Never been on a business trip before, though.

But the key on this one is that you can eliminate some hands that he doesn't have because he didn't raise/shove.)

> MAXBOOM: checks (I might raise, start asking some questions about what the conference is about, where he's staying, but for now I'll just let him continue to tell me his story.)

Pot is 475.
> *** FLOP *** [6s 6c 5d]

> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: bets 2615 and is all-in

(moment of truth here. I have Ac3c. He has just raised 2615 into a 475 pot.

The Omaha Holiday Inn doesn't have a reservation in his name.

I don't know what his range is, but I am confident what it isn't because he didn't raise preflop. Namely no Ace, no pocket pair. Additionally, he is shoving here. A premium hand (AA-QQ) might play the hand this way preflop, but after the flop as a short stack would almost certainly try to draw me in by checking hoping I'd make a play. Getting to Level 3 thinking, what do you think he thinks I have. Probably drawing the same conclusion because I just checked preflop, No Ace, No Pocket pair.

The office just called asking if they knew a number to reach him at.

I also don't think he'd open shove if he got any piece of this flop. It's too tasty a spot to check-raise me because he should suspect that if he checks, the random player acting behind him will make a move at this pot in this position. So there you have it, he doesn't have an Ace, he doesn't have a pocket pair and he doesn't have a piece of this flop.

"Oh that son-'bitch done went off to Vegas with Boomer and Dickie, didn't he?"

> MAXBOOM: calls 2615
> *** TURN *** [6s 6c 5d] [3s]
> *** RIVER *** [6s 6c 5d 3s] [Qc]
> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: shows [Kc 4d] (a pair of Sixes)
> MAXBOOM: shows [3c Ac] (two pair, Sixes and Threes)
> MAXBOOM collected 5705 from pot

(boom)

Bar Fly Banter, Vol. 4

Heard tonight--

Bartendress: "Put the salt back on the other side of the pepper!"
Barfly: "Why, who cares."
Bartendress: "White is right!"

I immediately thought "No way in the world after 3-days-a-week patronage for years am I sitting in a racist bar."

Although not mandatory in a food serving establishment, as a courtesy in a situation where you can conclusively determine which way the patron will be viewing the salt and pepper (i.e. a bar, or a booth where the spices abut a wall, etc.), you put the salt on the right and the pepper on the left as viewed by the patron.

Wanna guess why? [spoiler below]





As a courtesy to the blind.

Please Help

Look, we're silly. We're irreverent. We're largely irrevelant. We're also real people. And we are friends with this guy. If you've seen him, please help.



Police are looking for a man reported as missing from the Burke Centre area. 31-year-old Mark David Radcliffe was last seen at his home, located in the 5500 block of Glasgow Woods Court, around noon on Sunday, July 6. Radcliffe was supposed to travel to the Chicago area that same day but records indicate that he did not make the trip. Detectives determined that Radcliffe had been distraught recently.

Mark David Radcliffe is 5 feet 11 inches tall and weighs about 220 pounds. He has dark brown hair, brown eyes and is clean shaven.

Anyone with information is asked to contact Crime Solvers by phone at 1-866-411-TIPS(8477), e-mail at www.fairfaxcrimesolvers.org or text “TIP187” plus your message to CRIMES(274637) or call Fairfax County Police at 703-691-2131.

Update: Rest in peace, buddy.

Attitude

From one of my favorite poker blogs...

Poker Musings, Vol. 3 - Gracious but Vindictive in Defeat

I have no intention of turning this into a bad beat diary. But seriously...I Run Beautiful...

PokerStars Game #1875xxxxxxx: Tournament #95xxxxxx, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30)
Seat #5 is the button

Seat 1: MAXBOOM (1580 in chips)
Seat 2:(1080 in chips)
Seat 3:(1710 in chips)
Seat 4:(540 in chips)
Seat 5:(2830 in chips)
Seat 6:(1480 in chips)
Seat 9: Lescelleur (4280 in chips)
Seat 6: posts small blind 15
Lescelleur: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to MAXBOOM [8d Ad]
MAXBOOM: calls 30 [Loose, to be sure, but the table was virginally tight except for Mr. Les, who was being the table bully and raising everything very big and was also in the big blind.]
seat 3: folds
seat 4: folds
seat 5: folds
seat 6: folds
seat 7: calls 15
Lescelleur: raises 90 to 120 [we hoped for this! Nay! We orchestrated this cheap ass move from the big blind. Sorry, Les, in this world, you get outed]
MAXBOOM: raises 1460 to 1580 and is all-in
seat 7: folds
Lescelleur: calls 1460
*** FLOP *** [7h Kc Kd]
*** TURN *** [7h Kc Kd] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [7h Kc Kd 7s] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Lescelleur: shows [8s 7c] (a full house, Sevens full of Kings)
MAXBOOM: shows [8d Ad] (two pair, Kings and Sevens)
MAXBOOM said, "gg" [Gracious, even in defeat.]
Lescelleur said, "wow" [You forgot to type the rest, so I'll complete... "wow, I suck."]

The case could be made that his range was broad. My observation was he didn't play his monster hands this way (a 2 monster hand sample, admittedly not a lot of intel.) He could have had AA. Or a number of hands that had me beat. I thought my hand was a favorite over his range to make that particular bet in his own big blind. I also thought that absent a monster he could fold. I was right. And wrong.

I made a parallel judgement--

Largest junk = best broad. See Ms. Fire for confirmation.

Largest cards = best hand. See Game #1875xxxxxxx for rebuttal.

Some skills aren't absolute.

Deep breath... we play this game until infinity. Eventually, proper play will be a positive investment... Proper junk is still reaping rewards.

Ugh.

Voting

McCain will give all the money to the rich! Obama will tax you to death!
Well, at least the constitution gives me the right to decide. Constitutionaly, and all.
Sorry, just got 3rd out of 17 in the weekly poker tourney and am a bit on tilt.
Wrong.
You have no right to vote for el presidente...
You have no right to vote for the president of this here U S of A. The more savvy of you will no doubt point out that I'm d-r-u-n=k. Fair entougn. The rest will just read in blissful... bliss. Forget the electoral college for a minuet and bear with e. UR SMRT, if you figured out that you can't vote for the pres and can only get soemone to voet for you. BUT YOURE STILL WRONG.
After some research, it would appear that no one in the country has a constitutional right to vote for the members of the electoral college. The 13th, 14th and 15th amendments (circa 1865-1880 passing) are the first real stab at providing equal rights for citizens, and by citizens I mean men. The 13th outlawed slavery. The 14th defined citizenship and said that being a slave in the past did not disqualify you from citizenship. The 15th said that the right to vote could not be assigned in a discriminatory manner.
You have no constitutional right to vote.
The decision of who gets to vote for president/VP is left up to the states. Specifically its legistlatures. If tomorrow the state legislature said it didn't want the popu;lace voting, it's well within their right.
Since 1776, states have creatively found ways to keep certain people from not voting. Literacy, land ownership or "the grandfather clause" i.e. if your grandfather voted, you could (to allow illiterate white people to vote), were all used to keep blacks from voting even after the 15th amendment passed.
These are men, mind you. Women weren't included under the anti-discrimination umbrella until the 19th amendment in 1920.

What's interesting though is that states were finding ways to discriminate all the way up to the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which sought to end the practices altogether. Ironically, that still has to be ratified every so many years. The last extension was in 2006, for 25 more years.

I propose we change it.
To what, I don't know.
To steal a couple of Heinlein ideas, we could say you have to serve in the military to vote. Or you have to pay the cost of an ounce of gold (or pick the benchmark) to take a civics test-- if you pass the test, you get your money back and vote-- fail, and the horn goes off in the local library, you get exposed as a dupe and you fail and lose your right to cast the ballot.
I've been overserved on myh way to 3rd out of 17 in my weekly poker tourney. Happy Friday.
There's your history lesson for today.

Shattering an Icon

Ripped abs. Perfect pecs. Bulging briefs. You know them, ladies.


Those perfect moves. The willingness to listen to your every demand. The syncronicity they exhibit with their fellow performers. A real man.

Yeah, quit dreaming.

I have it on good authority (a female manager at a venue at which they performed) that once they leave the stage... let's just say that almost to a "man" there's a lot of "you were soooooper" and "haaaayyyyyyy" and "you just stole the show" followed by a nice buttsmack. A naked buttsmack.

Sorry to ruin the illusion.

Did you really believe otherwise?

Get Your Corn Dogs, Corn Dogs for $1

I would rather watch a baboon pick ticks off a chimpanzee on Discovery HD than watch most shows on the Prime Time Networks. Don't get me wrong, I have my guilty pleasures [cough, cough] "Family Guy", "My Name is Earl", [cough, cough]. But by and large, I think the folks on the Discovery Channel, Comedy Central, the Food Network, and a few of the other non-legacy channels are taking chances, writing scripts and generally producing more thought-provoking, watchable TV than any of the the mainstream channels. I suspect this is due to investor concerns and general upper management malaise, but I get conflicted attacking naked capitalism.

But this isn't a rant. It's a non-paid commendation.

Mrs. Bang saw an advertisement for "When We Left Earth" during the previews of one of the two or three movies we see in the theater on an annual basis. Forget the principle of you being the customer, paying to see a movie, and the chutzpa of the theaters to put an advertisement before you (I think the movie was "Ironman"). Promised.. not.. to.. rant... [punches self in head] Let's break tradition and be results-oriented for a bit. "When We Left Earth".

So we set the DVR to record it.

One word-- "Fantawesomagincredible."

One of the most insightful, proud-to-be-an-American, scientifically breathtaking shows I've ever seen.

This also isn't a review. One sentence synopsis-- an engaging, well documented summary of the history of the manned space-flight program, basic enough for the space novice, technical enough to spark the appreciation of an nerdy geeky inquisitive Max Boom, and entertaining enough to hopefully reignite the belief of this generation of Americans that there are in fact no bounds to the limits of what man can accomplish. Ron Howard as producer gets a "Max Boom World Changer" medal. Redeemable for a Bud Select poured by me at the venue of his choosing, if he so requests. But back to the show.

So every TV show has commercials. This isn't a commentary on the fact that I pay a premium for the Discovery HD channel. I will gladly pay extra coin, and even further will watch the occasional commercial, for superior content. As a fan of capitalism, I will even watch the commercials on a DVR'd show because I feel I owe it to the company. Provided you have good enough consultants and the commercials reach me. It's a trade-off. I tape the show to watch when convenient, and I will do you the service of watching the commercials that pay the bills because that's an implied trade-off. I won't circumvent that deal just because technology allows me to do so.

But the commercials better tell a story.

There are a cadre of human advertising drones optimizing what commercials to pair with what show. Some hawk $1,000 spinning hubcaps that you can finance at 8% for 6 years. Others pawn a $900 vacuum that can suck a diaper off a child and will give a pedicure if you buy their nail polish.

And some presumably target me and those like me. Which is to say, hyper-intelligent, chiseled, well-hung hicks.

I am a huge fan of "When We Left Earth." Here are the commercials I wrote down during one break.

ING Investments - Safeguarding your "Number" i.e. retirement nest egg. People carrying their retirement value around as a number under their arms.
Mastercard Instant Rewards - A morning coffee at Starbucks, gym after work and expensing the new leather briefcase that gets opened at night "priceless" kind of day.
Amway - Touting lip-sticks, high-end purses and other chick markets (aimed at 2nd income type folks?)
Comfort Inn - In troubling times, an economic alternative for families with enough disposable income to take vacations, but not enough to stay at the Ritz.
Direct TV - Boardroom setting, Cable HD folks who obviously have no idea how to do business. "Let's charge more, people earning money are obviously too busy to mess with HD quality." Choose Direct TV, we appreciate you earners.
Acura - If you're watching this, you're in the market for an Acura, Benz or Beemer. We encourage Acura.

I'm OK with this ad set, even though it implicitly ignores my more hillbilly southern sensibilities.

Who's advertising to you?

Poker Musings, Vol. 2 - An Illustration of Poker as a Game of Skill

Question from one of the guys I play regularly with who was playing a 80 player multi-table tournament (MTT) at the track --

I had 11.8K chips when the blinds were at 1,000/2,000. With AQ I was sixth to act. The third guy to act limped in and everyone else folded to me. I decided to take a shot and I went all in. The limper, with about 14K chips, took a very long time but decided to call w/55. A king hit on the river but I missed my cards. I am still trying to figure out if he made the right call?

A typical poker situation here, but one that requires some thought. Not all of the variables are in accounted for (his image at the table, how the game was running, etc.) Here's a purely mathmatical response from moi...

"I think your opponent made the right call. He open limps 55, putting $5000 in the pot. That's usually a bad move unless the table was really passive, but that's not at issue here. You push $11.8K. It costs him $9.8K more to win $16.8K, for about what 1.7-1 odds? Is a call correct?

Depends on the range your opponent put you on. With an M<4, so less than 4 more rounds before being blinded out, your range of hands should be fairly broad. Hypothetically say you push with any pocket pair, AK-AJ, KQ, KJ and AT. That's not unreasonable I don't think.

There are exactly 6 ways to make any pocket pair (9c9d, 9c9h, 9c9s, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, for example). Your opponent's got an 80% chance to lose to 54 pocket pairs (AA-66), and 80% to win against 18 pocket pairs (44-22). He can tie with exactly 1 pair (if you have 55, there is only one way for him to have 55), but I'll throw that out because it clouds the water.

You have exactly 16 ways to make each of the overcard hands (AcKc, AcKd, etc.) So he's roughly 50/50 with 96 possible hands.

So call that (54+18+96)= 168 possible hands that it would be reasonable to put you on, pushing late-ish in an Multi-Table Tournament with an M<4. I might widen the range if you were first to act, but with a caller already I think the range is reasonably optimal. Additionally, calling really isn't an option for you, so if you are tempted to call you have to push. Your opponent probably knows this, in case you were saying to yourself "I'd fold AT." I don't think that's a good move against a single limper, so I'm including that in the range he could reasonably put you on. You might even be lighter than that-- e.g. QJ, QTsooted, JTsooted?. I'll start by sticking to the first range above.

So these are what appear to be your opponent's percentage of winning the pot. Study carefully and ask questions if you don't understand the percentages, 'cause this is important stuff to understand why he correctly called and you should too in his position (based on long term Expected Value and ignoring tournament chip vs. cash payout equity because I don't fully understand the math on that yet).

You have overpair. Opponent's chances--
80% loss = 54/168*(-$9,800)*.8= (-$2,520 expectation)
20% win = 54/168*(+$16,800)*.2= (+$1,080 expectation)

You have 2 overcards. Opponent's chances--
50% loss = 96/168*(-$9,800)*.5= (-$2,800 expectation)
50% win = 96/168*(+$16,800)*.5= (+$4,800 expectation)

You have underpair. Opponent's chances--
20% loss = 18/168*(-$9,800)*.2= (-$210 expectation)
80% win = 18/168*(+$16,800)*.8=(+$1,440 expectation)

Total expectation for your opponent calling with 55 against your range is $(-2,520 + 1080 - 2,800 + 4,800 - 210 + 1,440) = +$1,790.

So he can expect to make an additional $1,790 every time he makes that call making that firmly a + Expected Value move by him against that range.

But taking your hypothesis even further and "he should assume 50% of the time I'm on a higher pocket pair."

To get to that, let's say you call any pocket pair, AK, AQ or AJsooted. Again ignoring pocket 5's for you because they muddy the water.

As above, 54 pairs are ahead of your opponent, 18 are behind and 36 hands are 50/50 (only 4 sooted AJ hands). 108 hands total, 50% of which are an overpair like you said.

You have overpair against your opponent.
80% loss = 54/108*(-$9,800)*.8= (-$3,920 expectation)
20% win = 54/108*(+$16,800)*.2= (+$1,680 expectation)

You have 2 overcards against your opponent.
50% loss = 36/108*(-$9,800)*.5= (-$1,633 expectation)
50% win = 36/108*(+$16,800)*.5= ($2,800 expectation)

You have underpair against your opponent.
20% loss = 18/108*(-$9,800)*.2= (-$327 expectation)
80% win = 18/108*(+$16,800)*.8=(+$2,240 expectation)

Total expectation is $(-3,920+1,680-1,633+2,800-327+2,240) = +$840.

Your opponent is still +EV to call against the range you identified, which again is pretty darn narrow and most player's ranges will be greater than that in your position if they're pushing late with an M<4.

You seem to get caught up with there being 9 pocket pairs that he's behind, 3 he's ahead of and only 3 overcard hands, so 9>6 and he should have folded. It's just much more likely to be dealt an overcard hand than a pocket pair hand (16 ways vs. 6 ways), so it distorts what seems to be an intuitive bad call."

Illinois throws its hat in the ring…

Not to be outdone by Louisiana’s "I live in a city below sea level and am ignoring the order to evacuate" Katrina “victims”,

Illinois appears to be desperately trying to lay claim as the state who’s residents are most entitled to being compensated for being stupid.

Today the state declared that they were going to sue Countrywide Financial.

Read Here (Caution 80+ pages)

It’s really a fascinating (if lengthy) read. However, if you’re perusing blogs, you are probably the type that wants a summary. OK, first off, repeat after me—“No bank ever makes a loan hoping to foreclose on it at a later date.”

Feel better?

Me too.

I'll bore you with a little background on what led to the national mortgage “crisis.” If you have a working understanding, you can skip to the line of asterisks below.

Now, in this filing there’s some interesting historical context detailing how the home loan business became a security game (private-label security, not please-don’t-murder-me security.) The gist is that banks used to hold most of the mortgages. In the early 90’s there was a recession and banks got hurt. New rules were made linking the bank’s credit exposure to its value, so because they weren’t increasing value they had to shed risk (technically they couldn’t raise capital so they had to lose assets.)

Enter the Government Sponsored Entities (GSE’s). Since that time, a few major players, namely Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, gobbled up most home loans made in America because banks don’t want to carry them on their books. The GSE’s mass-buy the loans by posting a set of rules that say “This is the type of loan, this is the type of applicant, etc. that we will buy.” If the loan fits in that “box”, Fannie will buy it at x% interest rate. This is called a “conforming loan” and through the mid-90’s, "non-conforming loans" were pretty rare.

Fannie puts a gazillion conforming loans into a pool and sells that pool to Wall Street. Interestingly enough, if you have a 401(k), an IRA, a pension, a money market account that pays interest, or even a savings account churning out 2% per year, you are Wall Street. The fingers of money are sticky. Your First Bank of Springfield makes you a loan for your house. They sell the loan to Fannie Mae. Your loan and a bunch of its friends get sold as a fund to Wall Street. Your First Bank of Springfield invests in that fund because it generates a safe 4% rate of return. Your bank then pays you 2% on your savings account, pocketing the 2% margin. Congratulations! Through your savings account you’ve just invested in your own mortgage.

**************************************************************

Back on task-- Wall Street has an appetite. It wanted more loans. You know what? There are plenty of people in America who can not qualify for conforming loans. Their assurance that they can repay the loan is not as solid. It usually comes down to credit rating or money-down. How do you quantify this new risk? By charging a higher interest rate and additional fees to offset the risk that a larger percentage will default.

From the Illinois Attorney General’s letter—

“Countrywide sought to place greater numbers of borrowers into loans laden with these premium-enhancing features.”

“The more loans its employees sold, the more money Countrywide paid them.”

EGAD! A company trying to maximize profit! Well dammit, let’s sue ‘em!

There is always a spoon bender (or team) in some office calculating the magnitude of additional risk and how much more you need to charge to offset it and still make money. Investors paid more for higher interest loans with high penalties for borrower non-compliance. Here’s a statistic to chew on: 21% of sub-prime loans are seriously delinquent (>90 days). I doubt you’ll see that number in any investor formula with a smiley face next to it.

Banks, investors, Wall Street—everyone’s getting creamed because they got that number wrong. It was an error. It wasn’t a crime! Countrywide’s stock is down 80% in the last 12 months and Bank of America will be acquiring them in the next week. Fannie Mae has written off billions in bad debt. Bears Stearns is gone.

You think they meant to do this?

Here’s another interesting factoid. In October of 2006 the unemployment rate in Illinois was 4.2%. In May of 2008 the number is 6.4%. That’s 156,800 additional jobless folks in case you’re counting. We didn’t have a mortgage crisis in October of 2006. All lenders combined only foreclosed on 64,310 homes in the state in 2007. Could the cause of the delinquency and foreclosure numbers in Illinois perhaps be linked to the loss of jobs during that time? Could Countrywide counter-sue Illinois for being a terrible steward of its employment market?

Not…bloody…likely.

And here’s the kicker. The argument is that the individual should never have been given the loan. So if I read into that correctly, someone got to live in a house they could not afford for a number of years and now at the end have to move out. With a ding to their credit. But their credit was dinged to begin with which is why they were in the non-conforming loan pool? And now they are entitled to recourse?

Companies made bad business decisions. The Countrywide approved lender villified in the Illinois AG's suit, with 5 felony convictions, should raise an eyebrow or two. None of the lender's charges appear to be related to any financial improprieties, which may or may not count. If the allegations against One Source are as written, and he made those verbal assurances contrary to what was in the contract, you have my permission to hang Mr. Mangold high. However, a business dealing with hundreds of affiliates can't be held to the standard of its lowest commen denominator as is the case here. And I suspect is the case in most under-investigated, over publicized, financial scandals.

But you know what? At the end of the day the contract governs the deal. I read my entire mortgage contract. Pretty boring stuff, and pretty damn empowering to the holder. But I know the rules and live by them. At the bottom of every mortgage sold by every bank to every investment house there is a signature. A person’s signature. That signature seals the contract and at that point the individual agrees to do something and the bank agrees to do something. In this case, only one side of the deal failed to perform.

And in Illinois, failure to do what you say you’re going to do makes you a victim.

Countrywide's gonna lose because people are stupid. They're going to lose because in America, citizens can vote themselves cake from the government pantry. Guess it’s about time to buy that hundred acres and a bunker. I think I’ll pay cash.

Troubled

I don't know.

Here's the deal. Do we give up the country to the US Deservists or not? I don't know.

Did the original immigrants who came to America, desiring to be free from oppression and excessive taxation, advocate unreciprocated support? I don't know.

We're heading into a recession. Either we're going to have to increase the tax on the earners, or ignore the increasing poor. Very difficult questions. Make no mistake, if you are among the few with the latitude to afford frivilous internet access, and the time to utilize it, you're in the gunsights. I don't know.

Should I spend what is going to be a huge amount of energy to oppose momentum that I think I can possibly outsmart in the short term, knowing that it will catch up with my children? Should I give up? I don't know.

Happy Monday.

Bar Fly Banter, Vol. 3

Heard tonight--

"You notice how they're never showing the beach below the cliffs at Torrey Pines?" (currently holding the U.S. Open golf tournament)

MB - "Didn't notice."

"Well, the beach below the cliffs that act as a hazard for a number of holes is actually called Black's Beach. It's a fully nude beach, so you'll never see anything but a blimp view."

And there you have it...

It Works!

I drive a truck. 'Cause chicks dig trucks. Unless they dig guys who drive Prius's. In which case they're probably a little too hairy for me. Doesn't stop me from punching their Prius driving half-men in the jaw. But that's another story.

Now, as a truck driver I sacrifice certain, shall we say, efficiencies in gas milage. Couple that with an 80 MPH disposition and you have a guy that's not doing his part to battle Al Qaeda.

Or something.

So I was getting 13 miles to the gallon. Gets a little painful filling up the 23 gallon tank. First time I realized that my credit card cuts off at $75 on a gas purchase. To protect me. In the past month, they've upped it to $85. Apparently they got some complaints. I was too lazy.

I routinely got 290 miles +/- on a 22 gallon +/- fill-up. About every 8-9 days.

So I set a goal. 2000 RPMs. A not-to-exceed ceiling. No change in driving pattern except a not to exceed RPM. 0-60 in about 30 seconds. Sounds slow, but isn't bad if you time it. About 73 MPH max speed. You notice a huge increase in RPMs above about 60 MPH.

I left with a tank on June 3rd. Filled up today. 22.5 gallons. 336 miles. 2 miles to the gallon more.

I bought myself another day between fill-ups. About 13% increase in fuel milage. A little less than 3 gallons extra per tank. Call it $11.

Figure I fill up 30 times per year. Call it $330 a year in savings.

Stick it, Obama Osama!

Poker Musings

So Ms. Fire's family has been in town for the past several years days causing me to miss the last 2 weekly neighborhood poker games. While I love my in-laws dearly, last night I felt the need to go stretch my legs a little, so I wandered across the street to see how the game was going. Fortunately for me, a couple of the players had already busted out so 4 of us decided to start a small $0.05/0.10 cash game with a $5 buy-in. I couldn’t play for long as the family was waiting at home, so I played for about half an hour or so.

I’ll skip the suspense—I pwned it.

In the big blind with AQ. Call, call, call and then “Raise it up!” from yours truly. To be fair, this was not a tricky game. Throw in $0.50, fold, fold, fold and I scoop $0.30.

Couple of hands later, TT in the big blind. Call, call, call and then “Raise it up!” from yours truly. To be fair, this was not a tricky game. Throw in $0.50, call, call, call. Flop comes K83. Check, and then “Raise it up!” from yours truly. Throw in $1.00. Fold, fold, fold and I scoop $1.50.

A few hands later, AQ on the button. Call, and then “Raise it up!” from yours truly as I chuck out $0.30. To be fair… you get the point. The hostess (or wife of the host, depending on how you look at it) was one of the players in my game. “Why do you have to raise it every time? OK, I call.” Fold, fold. Flop comes Q52, all spades. A quick check confirms that I have the Ace of Spades. Top pair, top kicker plus the flush draw.

Well now a lesser (inebriated) player would check to trap. I chose to “Raise it up!” ‘cause I’m the man. A bet of $0.30, or just under half the pot, seemed to smell just fishy enough to merit a call. “Call”. Bingo, I have a customer. Turn was an 8 of spades. I’ve got the nuts.

Now a little tomfoolery. “I check”. She checks behind. Damn, she doesn’t have a spade.

The river was the King of spades. 5 spades on the board. The pot was about $1.30. I’ve got a lock on the hand. How much to bet?

“Raise it up”. $2.00. Seems like an overbet from someone playing the board. “Fold.” Damn. Level 4 move on a Level 1 player.

Time to leave. Up $2.45 in about half an hour. Took my $2, left the $0.45 to the table and was back at home by 10. If I can translate my 24 big blind win in half an hour long term to a $2/$5 game, I can turn pro. Pipe dreams.

Live Large

Moderation is for pansies. But watch that 3rd step... it's a doozie.

F You All, You Dumb...Stupid...Other Countries...You

This was forwarded to me under the title "The Perfect Presidential Candidate." 2 of the 3 readers on the distribution list felt that it was very strongly Republican in nature. Presumably because it adopts a "Punch-you-in-the-mouth" overtone lobotomized from the typical Democrat psyche some time ago. As almost certainly the most right-leaning contributor to this blog (except on the issue of immigration, the reasons for which will become apparent), I thought I'd weigh in on my opinion of the above "speech."
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WOULDN'T IT BE GREAT TO TURN ON THE TV AND HEAR ANY U.S. PRESIDENT, DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN GIVE THE FOLLOWING SPEECH?

' My Fellow Americans: As you all know, the defeat of the Iraq regime has been completed.

Since Congress does not want to spend any more money on this war, our mission in Iraq is complete.

This morning I gave the order for a complete removal of all Ameri can forces from Iraq This action will be complete within 30 days. It is now time to begin the reckoning.

Before me, I have two lists. One list contains the names of countries which have stood by our side during the Iraq conflict. This list is short . The United Kingdom , Spain , Bulgaria , Australia , and Poland are some of the countries listed there.

The other list contains every one not on the first list. Most of the world's nations are on that list. My press secretary will be distributing copies of both lists later this evening.

Let me start by saying that effective immediately, foreign aid to those nations on List 2 ceases immediately and indefinitely. The money saved during the first year alone will pretty much pay for the costs of the Iraqi war. THEN EVERY YEAR THERE AFTER IT'll GO TO OUR SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM SO IT WONT GO BROKE IN 20 YEARS.

The American people are no longer going to pour money into third world Hellholes and watch those government leaders grow fat on corruption.

Need help with a famine ? Wrestling with an epidemic? Call France .

In the future, together with Congress, I will work to redirect this money toward solving the vexing social problems we still have at home . On that note, a word to terrorist organizations. Screw with us and we will hunt you down and eliminate you and all your friends from the face of the earth.

Thirsting for a gutsy country to terrorize? Try France or maybe China .

I am ordering the immediate severing of diplomatic relations with France, Germany , and Russia . Thanks for all your help, comrades. We are retiring from NATO as well. Bon ne chance, me z a mies.

I have instructed the Mayor of New York City to begin towing the many UN diplomatic vehicl es located in Manhattan with more than two unpaid parking tickets to sites where those vehicles will be stripped, shredded and crushed. I don't care about whatever treaty pertains to this. You creeps have tens of =20 thousands of unpaid tickets. Pay those tickets tomorrow or watch your precious Benzes, Beamers and limos be turned over to some of the finest chop shops in the world. I love New York

A special note to our neighbors. Canada is on List 2. Since we are likely to be seeing a lot more of each other, you folks might want to try not pissing us off for a change.

Mexico is also on List 2. Its president and his entire corrupt government really need an attitude adjustment. I will have a couple extra thousand tanks and infantry divisions sitting around. Guess w here I am going to put 'em? Yep, border security.

Oh, by the way, the United States is abrogating the NAFTA treaty - starting now.

We are tired of the one-way highway. Immediately, we'll be drilling for oil in Alaska - which will take care of this country's oil needs for decades to come. If you're an environmentalist who opposes this decision, I refer you to List 2 above: pick a country and move there.

It is time for America to focus on its own welfare and its own citizens. Some will accuse us of isolationism. I answer them by saying, 'darn tootin.'

Nearly a century of trying to help folks live a decent life around the world has only earned us the undying enmity of just about everyone on the planet. It is time to eliminate hunger in America It is time to eliminate homelessness in America .

To the nations on List 1, a final thought. Thank you guys. We owe you and we won't forget.

To the nations on List 2, a final thought: You might want to learn to speak Arabic.

God bless America . Thank you and good night. '

If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you are reading it in English, thank a s oldier. (Please forward this to at least ten friends and see what happens!

Let's get this to every USA computer !)
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Summary
It's drivel and patently contradicts the very cornerstones upon which this great country was founded.

Taking it generally point-by-point.

Cease foreign aid if your country doesn't agree with our every opinion like the 5 countries on List 1. This standard doesn't survive marriages, friendships, or any other mutual-benefit relationship with only 2 individual participants. But let's expect it to work on the national level. Also, last time I checked, Spain pulled its Iraq troops in a dramatic gesture of "Dude, this was soooo wrong!".

But now, let's withdraw our troops because a country that has lived under tyranny for 3000+ years can't pull off democracy within the window of an election cycle. America, founded on a vision that all people are created equal, is the best example of a thriving democracy the world has ever known. It's taken us over 200 years starting from a blank slate to get here. And we've still got our pimples.

Cut off foreign aid to List 2 countries to pay for Iraq and then fix Social Security.
Yearly US Foreign Aid = +/- $23 Billion. (http://www.ipb.org/Israel%20and%20Egypt%20Receive%20Most%20US%20Military%20Aid.pdf, page 3. Note: This is the highest estimate of foreign aid out of several sources.)
Yearly Iraq War Cost = $144 Billion (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=4418698)
Social Security Shortfall = Net present value of benefits owed vs. taxes to be collected = $6.5 Trillion (http://www.heritage.org/Research/SocialSecurity/wm1868.cfm)
The author's supporting math to the "Stop Foreign Aid to Shore Up Social Security" proposition-


Need help with a famine? Sorry, your citizens are too crappy to withstand a military junta. Let 'em starve! I'm buying a boat.

(shamelessly pirated from FlatsHunter-- nice wurk)

And let's sever ties with France, Germany and Russia. But please ignore that Germany and France are our 5th and 8th largest trading partners. [I actually think we could live without #8,


but that's an essay for another day. For now, keep focus on the knee-jerk.] Let's also cut ties with Russia, what with one of the most differing government philosophies to our own on the planet. Never mind that they are starting to flex their fiscal might largely due to figuring out that oil is worth something. You don't support us, fine. I'm putting my hands over my face and you've all gone away.

And let's retire from NATO. Forget our membership in the UN, which like a python is making every attempt to strangle the sovereignty from every country more powerful than Angola. Let's focus on NATO, the only long term, multi-country conglomeration that has managed to accomplish anything (see winning that Cold War thingy.) Oh yeah, remember September 11th. It was shortly afterwards that the same NATO enacted Article 5-- "You hit one of us, you hit all of us... and we can make your country glow." NATO>UN for US interests.

I'll gloss over the fact that the author devotes more words to the "Tow the UN Diplomat's Car, that'll show them who's boss!" than to any other concept.

Oh, and Canada, your name isn't too far down on our list. Don't make us open this...





Guess we'll cut the $0 in foreign aid we give you. You're such leeches...
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/321891_katrina30.html

Close our borders now! Forget the "give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free" precept upon which we were founded. That ended with the Irish. Now, "they're takin' our jobbbbs!"

"Soldier, I appreciate your service over the last 4 years in Iraq away from your family. I see Mercedes in your future."
"Right on, a Mercedes!"
"No, grunt. Mercedes, TX. I'm parking you in a tank on the Rio Grande so you can keep our workers safe from all them Mexicans!"

Withdraw from NAFTA = The Dum. Historically, the U.S. modus operandi is success through invention. Raw Materials + American Minds and Work Ethic = Superpower. NAFTA opens up largely tariff free access to raw materials from both Canada and Mexico (taking a few liberties on tariff free, but bear with me.) Basically, it says "We can all access the same materials and the same markets on roughly equal terms." This is right in our wheelhouse! Every country has finite physical resources. Untethered from that, it then has a capacity to create limited only by constraints on its populations' intelligence+drive and any further restraints imposed by the government (illegal, over taxed, over-regulated, etc.) The U.S. resume is filled with family trees beginning in America with an ancestor who said of his home country "I'm too constrained and too smart to stay here. I'm going to America." Our primordial soup was comprised of the driven and the smart. And now we're going to oppose being given cheaper access to another countries' natural resources and labor pool, the only finite holding any country really has, because we're afraid to match our brains and wits with theirs? Ridiculous! America is not defined by strong backs working for nominal wages. We should be cheering the export of brute labor and figuring out how to utilize our superior capacity to create-- relishing the fact that we can export the low-wage mindless component of industry and open up additional opportunities to invent here instead.

Go drill in Alaska. I don't care. It's short sighted and a relatively minor issue. I'll file in the same folder with the UN-car chop shop. Irrelevant. Darn tootin' I will.

And now let's rally around "We need to fix our own problems here first!"

Go on, monkey, rally!

OK, feel better? Now understand this. No one has to be hungry. No one has to be homeless. You've just got to want it. We have job assistance programs. Check the classifieds- someone's always looking for someone. Not 7 figure jobs, but jobs nonetheless. We have subsidized housing. Not mansions, but clean and affordable based on income. The deal is you have to show up for work every day. We have free schools, buses and lunches. You can give a better life to your children. Today. You just have to meet Uncle Sam half way. His hand is, and has always been, out to help anyone who dusts themselves off and says "Just give me a chance to make it myself."

On the flip side, the government doesn't owe you help fixing all of your problems. It owes you protection from unprovoked harm and a reasonably fair playing field. Everything else is applesauce.

If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you can read it in English, thank a soldier. Not my words. Not the words of the ignorant author either. But spot on, nonetheless.

In short, this is what I think of the author's efforts--

Bar Fly Banter, Vol. 2- R.I.P Mr. Parakeet

(Editor’s note: Max Boom, while a Superdelagate in the American light beer arena, adheres to a strict “No Illegal Drug” policy.)

New vocabulary I learned while eavesdropping last night at the local watering hole:

Waterfalling – verb – To inhale smoke as follows: Immerse your hands in cold water. Remove them and extend out in front of you, palm side up with your pinkies in contact. Your hands should resemble a wet bowl with a “channel” running from the tip of your pinky, along the meat of your hand, ending at the wrist. Put the bottom of the channel (wrist end) to your mouth. Have a friend inhale deeply on his cannabis cigarette (or pipe, dugout, skull, or other bud-to-smoke conversion tool) and blow the smoke into the top of the channel at your pinkies. You inhale deeply at the bottom.

Gladhatting – verb – To inhale smoke as follows: Remove your Baller, Shot-Caller Starter hat. Turn bill-side up so that you are staring into the inside of your hat, like a catcher’s mitt. Put the hat over your face so that the bill is sticking up in the air. Make sure if you’ve still left the price and/or brand tag attached to your hat that it doesn’t interfere with the airtight nature of your new mask. Once again, have a friend inhale deeply on his cannabis cigarette. Lift the bill of the hat slightly away from your forehead and have friend blow smoke under the bill and into your mask. Inhale deeply.

And a final vocabulary lesson with a tragic twist:

Super winner barfly #1: “Remember the time you shotgunned your parakeet? Poor thing died on the spot?”

Super winner barfly #2: “Yeah, that was so wrong.”

Max: “Do you mean to imply that you shot a parakeet with a shotgun and were surprised at its very predictable and timely demise?”

Super winner barfly #1: “No, I mean with a joint.”

Max: “Well paint me dense, but I have no idea what you’re talking about.”

Super winner barfly #1: “Shotgunning is where you turn the joint around in your mouth and kiss someone while blowing smoke into their mouth. He did it with his pet parakeet.”

And this is why I log the hours I do at the bar. To regale you, dear reader, with gems of wisdom such is “Between parakeet and human, shotgunning amuses only one”.

RIP, Mr. Parakeet, RIP.

Perfection

I saw a gentleman bowl a 300 two lanes down from me yesterday. 300. 12 straight strikes. By the 8th frame there was a small crowd. By the 10th everyone in the bowling alley was cheering around his lane. Every. Single. Person. I could have taken all the money in the cash register and no one would have noticed.

But I didn’t. And neither did anyone else.

Perfection is amazing. It's perfect. You become immersed in it. In some small way, we were all up there bowling strike after strike. It’s a glow that makes whatever dirty bills and cheap coins I could have taken seem trivial. When he hit the final strike, I saw strangers giving each other high-fives and pats on the back. We did it!

Not many activities offer “perfect” as an attainable goal. A 59 in golf can always be beaten by a 58. A perfect 10 in gymnastics is still subjective. All it requires is that 7 judges agree that the routine was tough enough and was performed with no apparent flaws. But there’s always a better routine.

I was perfect once. December 5, 2005. Microsoft Hearts.














My co-workers, however, failed to embrace the glow.

Bar Fly Banter, Vol. 1

So I was having a pleasant conversation with Ms. Fire at the local watering hole when the following exchange came up—

Max: “Man, I met some pretty wealthy people at this conference I attended. People with $6 Million liquid, to say nothing of the vastly greater wealth tied up in their various investments. Pretty sharp folks.”

Ms: [says nothing, cannot stop ogling my manly mustache.}

Eavesdropping Barfly: “Yup, it takes money to make money.”

And pan out to 60,000 feet.

Now I know this gentleman. He’s a Semi-Regular. My definition of a Regular is someone there more often than I, and a Semi-Regular as someone whom I’ve seen more than 20 times. For the record, there are fewer than 6 Regulars by my definition.

Let’s take a step away and give a little more info on the bar, as it provides a primary backdrop for many of my anecdotes. It’s your stereotypical sports bar—not a chain, but a stand alone establishment. They have Bud Select on tap. For me. They have a Christmas party every year for their staff. Ms. Fire and I got one of 10 "Favored Patrons" invites. I rocked Eminem on the Karaoke. Damn, this is turning more into a resume of my awesomeness than a bio on the bar.

Linearly thinking, the bar Regular and Semi-Regular patrons range through a wonderful blend of semi-successful business folks with an affliction, blue collar toilers with a habit, and bumbling mental trilobites with a problem. I love all of my marionettes equally. Mr. “It takes money to make money” definitely tends towards the obtuse end of the spectrum—every 95th percentile needs its 5th I suppose.

Now I don’t usually engage in any mental sparring with patrons who, in my opinion, would likely fail debate against animals I have eaten. Usually. Unless they A) unprovoked, knock one of my favored football teams or B) interrupt Ms. Fire’s stroking of my supple mane. He chose B).

Max: “What exactly does that mean, ‘It takes money to make money’?”

Barfly: “Well, if you want to build an apartment building you gotta have the money to build it.”

Max: “So, if you woke up with $6 Million liquid, what would you do?”

Barfly: “Well, you sure wouldn’t see me showing up for work at the garage tomorrow.”

Max: “So you’d quit your current job. Then?”

Barfly: “I’d probably move to the Bahamas and never work again.”


I acknowledged his piercing business acumen and promptly returned to my cups.

So I offer a simple bit of advice. If you, reader 5 of 13, or any of the other 12 of you, come up to me and mindlessly recite the underachieving mantra “It takes money to make money,” I’ll kick you square in the shin. In my experience, it hurts much worse than a punch in the nose. Of secondary benefit is that your lawsuit’s gonna look pretty darn silly.

12 Pack Review, #1 - Resident Evil, Apocolypse

Hot chick
She drops gun and then catches on way down defying gravity to kill 2 bad guys
Kills Super human awesomely
Town is nuked, she deliberately catches schrapnel in chest to save girl
She of course lives
Black guy in appropriate stereotypically roll as pimp - name is docter julius morrow, you can call me jm
dumb people generally get killed
dramatic bad guy death (thrown off back of helicopter, shoots 9 bullets at zombies, goes to commit suicide, forget gun only holds 9 bullets.)
top 5 list hot lead, doesn't get introduced until last 40 minutes
good looking filler girls in between.
alice-my name is alice.
breaks out at end-epic 2nd finale where more bad guys get killed.

Special bonus: Ms. Fire also enjoys

"An Ode to Sunrise" by My Tree

“Oh beautiful sun, ascending on the horizon,
Your glimmering rays drying dew on my limbs,
Shine forth..”

[chirp]

“Ahem, shine forth your golden..”

[chirp chirp]

“YOU. DOWN THERE. SHUT YOUR LITTLE BEAK!”

[groans, branch moves a fraction of an inch, bird unmoved]

[chirp]

“Hrrrrrumph!”

[acorn drops near bird, it flutters off]

“Right. Now...where were we--
Your glimmering rays drying dew on my limbs,
Shine forth your golden light upon my leaves
And embrace..

[garage door opens]

“For the love of dirt, KEEP IT DOWN!”

[Max Boom walks out with pruning shears]

“What’s this? Wait. No. NOOOOO! EEEEEOOOOOWWWWW! Not that one too. AAAAARRRGHHH!”

[passes out]

[bark lids flutter some hours later]

“My beautiful limbs...so short now…neutered. Butcher is…tying me... up?

[passes out again, more hours pass]

“Oh sun, you leave for the day. Our dance was too short. Tomorrow our affair resumes anew. For now, darkness falls and I must rest. Adieu..”

[garage door opens]

“Stay away! You heathen! You psychopath! Stay away!”

[Max walks to side of house. Tree notices orange tether running from trunk to outlet.]

“What the deuce?”

[Max plugs in cord, Christmas lights illuminate]

“Idiot. You pea-brained cretin! It's May! Oh F-me…”